Introductory
Observations
China
is once again in focus in challenging the status-quo in South Asia in collusive
strategic facilitation by Pakistan. This time China has shifted the strategic
focus from India’s borders with China- Occupied Tibet in Arunachal Pradesh in
the North East to Ladakh and to India’s Line of Actual Control with Pakistan
Occupied Kashmir (POK). Reports emanating from unimpeachable sources in the
United States indicate that China has positioned nearly 12,000 Chinese Army
troops in the Gilgit-Baltistan Region of the Northern Areas presently in
illegal occupation of Pakistan.
China
in one quiet but swift stroke has changed the geopolitical and geostrategic
equations in this critical region which borders China, India, Afghanistan,
Pakistan and Tajikistan. The deployment of Chinese troops in this region even
though for the ostensible purposes of infrastructural improvements of the
‘Karakoram Corridor’ heralds a new phase of China flexing its muscles not only
against India but more significantly against United States in the wider global
context.
Ominously,
China’s upgradation of the Karakoram Corridor on Pakistan’s behalf enables
China’s strategic outreach to the North Arabian Sea and the Gulf. Building oil
and gas pipelines through this Corridor significantly improve China’s military
postures in Western Tibet and Xingjiang both against India and countering the
NATO’s Eastward creep towards China’s peripheries. Notwithstanding that the
Karakoram Corridor initially passes through disputed territory, China has gone
ahead with this major project as the major portion traversing Pakistan gives a
strategic advantage to China in not only in outflanking US embedment in
Afghanistan but also places a strong ‘strategic pressure point’ in China’s hand
against the United States when coupled with Chinese naval presence at Gwadur
Port in proximity of the Hormuz Straits.
Pakistan’s
overall strategy in ceding de facto control of Gilgit and Baltistan to China is
to involve China as a stakeholder in the Jammu and Kashmir issue which Pakistan
so obsessively pursues. Pakistan thereby hopes to transform Kashmir as a
bilateral India-Pakistan issue to one of a trilateral India-Pakistan-China
issue.
China
additionally acquires crucial stakes in this disputed territory by virtue of
its involvement in upgradation of Karakoram Corridor which enables it a
strategic outreach by land to the North Arabian Sea and the Gulf. As a quid pro
quo to Pakistan, China is also engaged in building feeder roads and bridges
having a bearing on Pakistan Army’s operations against India in Ladakh.
China’s
focused involvement in construction of a number of dams in this region for
Pakistan enables China to reinforce its strategic signature and footprints in
this disputed region and sending clear messages to India that China is sitting
tightly in the region as a stakeholder courtesy Pakistan and buttressing
Pakistan.
The
United States needs to note that what we are witnessing today is the
transformation of “ Pakistan as a frontline state of United States strategy”
to a newer incarnation as “ Pakistan as a frontline state of China’s
Grand Strategy”.
India
has no other option but to take a serious note of these developments. But a
greater call devolves on the United States to meet the evolving China challenge
via Pakistan to US embedment in the Middle East.
China
in terms of political and strategic signaling to its adversaries does not act
impulsively and therefore the Chinese challenge of changing the strategic
status-quo in South Asia has to be viewed as a well thought out and calibrated
Chinese strategy to counteract what it perceives as growing reinforcing of the
US-India Strategic Partnership.
These
combined moves by China and Pakistan seemed to have been coincidently timed
with the United States wavering commitments in Afghanistan and an India
emasculated by strategic indecisiveness and lacking strategic audacity in tackling
its military threats from China and Pakistan, both singly and jointly.
Some
may react to this Paper as sensationalizing a trivial issue involving Chinese
assistance to Pakistan in upgradation of infrastructural development in its
border regions. What must not be forgotten is that in such development trivia
germinate the foundations of an enlarging China-Pakistan strategic nexus and collusiveness which is bound to generate
reverberations amongst neighbors.
Some
of the more salient facts of the situation arising from China’s increasing
strategic obtrusiveness in Gilgit-BaltistanRegion which need examination are as
follows:
• China’s Political Signaling to India on Kashmir
• Military Implications for India Generated by China’s Involvement
and Presence in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir
• United States: Implications of China’s Military Presence in
Pakistan Occupied Kashmir.
• India and the United States: The Imperatives to
Transparently Discuss the Emergent China Threat in Asia
China’s
Political Signaling to
India
on Kashmir
China
political signaling to India on Kashmir by deploying its troops in POK and enlarging its profile in involvement of
infrastructure development there is intended to send multiple political
messages to India.
The
foremost signal to India is that China would now harden its position on Kashmir
as a disputed territory which would gladden Pakistan. It needs to be recalled
that sometime in the 1990s China had shifted its hard stances of
self-determination for Kashmir to one of virtual recognition of Kashmir as a
de-facto part of India.
China
had been signaling change from that earlier stance with its insistence to issue
stapled visas to residents of Jammu and Kashmir State and the recent refusal of
a visa to the Northern Army Commander on the plea that he commands the
‘disputed region’. China must consequently be asked by India as to how it is
enlarging its stakes in a ‘disputed territory’ by strategic
obtrusiveness?
The
second political message from China is that Jammu and Kashmir henceforth as a
disputed territory in Chinese perceptions enables China to now interfere
directly in the internal politics of Kashmir Valley in favor of secessionists.
Evident of this was China inviting the Kashmiri secessionist leader
MirwaizFarooq to China for discussions. One could expect greater Chinese
interference in this field. One wonders as to how effectively Indian
intelligence agencies are monitoring Chinese intelligence penetration of the
Kashmir secessionist movement and linkages with Kashmiri secessionist
leaders.
Politically,
with such stances India should get the political message that China is an
implacable adversary of India and no political space exists for any political
reconciliation with China.
China
may also be signaling India to lay off Tibet and not be tempted to dabble on
Tibet affairs despite any growing Indian political clout in the global
strategic calculus.
Military
Implications for India Generated by China’s Involvement and Presence in
Pakistan Occupied Kashmir
The
military implications arising from China’s increasing profile in POK has again
to be viewed at multiple levels, namely in the overall context of the
China-India military stand-off along India’s long borders with China-Occupied
Tibet, next in the context of India’s defence postures in Ladakh and finally in
the context of a combined military threat by China and Pakistan.
In
the overall context of the China-India military standoff along the India-China
Occupied Tibet border, China getting fearful of India’s strengthened defensive
postures in the North East in Arunachal Pradesh would by its present maneuvers
in POK be able to trifurcate India’s military responses in the event
of
hostilities.
Further,
China was most vulnerable militarily in its Western military deployment opposite
India’s Ladakh region due to logistic limitations especially in terms of fuel
supplies necessary to prosecute sizeable
military operations against India. With the development of infrastructure in
the Karakoram Corridor, and especially the oil pipelines, China’s oversized
military deployments against India would now be strongly sustainable
logistically.
In
the context of India’s defence postures in Ladakh, the challenge of China’s
growing presence in POK and its involvement in roads network emanating from the
Karakoram Highway and running towards Skardu and other locations opposite
Ladakh and Siachen Sectors opens up the possibilities of China outflanking
Indian military deployments in Ladakh. In any future hostilities China could
open a direct route to Leh along the Indus Valley without fighting India’s main
defensive deployments opposite the Tibetan border. Such an outflanking move
from the rear could unravel India’s entire defence posture in Ladakh.
Finally,
in the context of a combined China-Pakistan military threat against India,
China’s development of strategic infrastructure in the Gilgit-Baltistan region
running eastwards towards Indian defenses in the Ladakh Sector would facilitate
speedy and enlarged Pakistan Army deployments hithertofore limited by
infrastructural inadequacies. This would enable the Pakistan Army to complement
China’s main military offensives against Ladakh to the consequent military
advantage of both. It could also facilitate China opening up a direct
outflanking front against India by Chinese troops acting in concert with
Pakistan Army.
United
States: Implications of China’s Military Presence in Pakistan Occupied
Kashmir
Briefly
put, the implications of China’s military presence in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir
have to be viewed through the prism of the overall United States-Pakistan
relationship, the United States-China power games and the impact of both these
on United States strategic postures in Afghanistan, Greater South West Asia and
the global context.
The
striking feature of the United States-Pakistan relationship all along has been
American generosity towards Pakistan and a forgiving US stance on Pakistan’s
strategic delinquencies. Pakistan in return, instead of being grateful for
American munificence and strategic favors has all along has been double-timing
and duplicitous This distinguishing features still persists and cannot be more
better illustrated than Pakistan actively facilitating China’s intrusive
presence in POK detrimental to United States strategic interests.
Strong
voices in the American strategic community have begun emerging calling for the
United States to recast its policies towards Pakistan. This is likely to gain
momentum.
Repeatedly
emphasized in this Author’s Papers have been the strategic realities that if
chips are down and Pakistan is forced to make a strategic choice between the
United States and China, then Pakistan would unhesitatingly opt for
China.
By
making available the Karakoram Corridor to China, Pakistan in effect has
enabled China to offset America’s maritime superiority choking China at the
strategic chokepoints that dot China’s energy lifelines from the Gulf to China.
Pakistan
in effect has therefore sided with the United States enemy and helped China in
defeating American strategies to contain China’s rising military profile.
Taking
off from the above is that in the ongoing United States-China power games
Pakistan’s active assistance in enhancing the capacity of the Karakoram
Corridor allows China to establish a meaningful and substantive strategic
foothold in close proximity of the strategic Straits of Hormuz vital for
American embedment in the Gulf Region andglobal energy supplies. Pakistan has
therefore enabled force-multipliers to China against the United States when the
Karakoram Corridor is coupled with Gwadur Port and Pakistan Navy bases on the
Makran Coast.
China
with the ongoing joint moves with Pakistan is now in a position to outflank
United States military presence in Afghanistan. Further, with such enhanced
postures, China can be inclined to be less helpful in solution of the
Afghanistan conflict. China’s military presence in areas adjoining Afghanistan
is likely to be used as a strong leverage by China against the United
States.
China’s
overall strategy has been to force the United States to exit the Asia Pacific.
Pakistan’s current strategy is to prompt and induce the United States exit from
Afghanistan. While China may not succeed in forcing USA out of the Asia
Pacific, Pakistan seems to be making headway in prompting USA to withdraw from
Afghanistan. Such a strategic vacuum so caused leaves China in a dominating
position in Greater South West Asia with its Pakistan satellite doing the
spadework.
Resultantly,
the United States leverages in South Asia to restrain Pakistan’s military
adventurism and its WMD proliferation get that much more curtailed. In actual
fact, the most striking imperative for Pakistan for its strengthening strategic
collusiveness with China is spurred by the pronounced national anti-Americanism
predominating Pakistan and Pakistan’s strategy to shake-off United States
strategic hold over Pakistan.
In a case of reversed strategic irony, “Pakistan as
a frontline state in United States strategy so far, would now emerge as China’s
frontline state in Chinese Grand Strategy against the United States”.
India
and the United States: The Imperatives to Transparently Discuss the Emerging
China Threat in Asia
It
would be an understatement to maintain that both the United States and India
have strategic concerns on the emerging China threat in Asia. However both the
United States and India have been strategically coy and shying away from any
mutual discussions on how to deal with the China threat.
The
United States has been continuously engaged in adhering to a “Hedging Strategy
on China”. India on the other hand has pulled wool over its eyes and shirks
from identifying publicly that China is the prime and potent threat to India
for reasons which need no elaboration to an informed audience.
Strategic
imperatives would dictate that both the United States and India break out of
their existing strategic shells and transparently discuss the emerging China
Threat in Asia and how both these prominent democracies can effectively contain
the China Threat.
The
very transparent discussion of the China Threat between the United States and
India could send appropriate political and strategic signals to China.
The
onus is more on India to initiate such a dialogue with the United States. India
must spell out to the United States as to what it expects from the United
States in the event of Chinese Aggression against India. The American responses
ensuing could then either way assist India’s national security establishment to
craft integrated responses, independent self reliance or alternative power
backing from other quarters.
Concluding
Observations
China
and Pakistan have unceasingly been involved in joint crafting of initiatives
and developments which strategically embarrass India. Pakistan’s de facto
ceding of the Gilgit-Baltistan Region to China on whatever pretext, is a
devious ploy to politically embed China as a stakeholder in the Kashmir
dispute.
In
terms of India’s national security context, the developments under way foretell
the significant enhancement of China’s and Pakistan’s military operational
capabilities against India.
The
strengthening of the force-multiplication potential of the Karakoram Corridor
by Pakistan is directly aimed at off-setting United States embedment in the
Middle East and reduction of American leverages over Pakistan.
Pakistan
is no longer a frontline state of US strategy. Pakistan is fast transforming
into a frontline state of China’s Grand Strategy.
-
Dr. Subhash Kapila is the Director, SAAG, Chennai
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